How U.S. Military Action Against Mexican Drug Cartels Could Unfold: A Four-Step Scenario

The Trump administration’s recent designation of eight Latin American drug cartels, six from Mexico, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) marks a dramatic escalation in U.S. policy. Coupled with U.S. Special Forces training in Mexico, CIA drone surveillance, increased tariffs, and border deployments, it’s evident that the groundwork is being laid for potential direct military action against cartel networks on Mexican soil.

Here’s how such an operation might unfold, based on current developments:

Step 1: Build Relationships and Training

U.S.-Mexico security cooperation will serve as the bedrock for military engagement. However, Mexico’s deep institutional ties to cartel corruption, as evidenced by convictions of senior Mexican officials like Genaro García Luna and allegations surrounding former President AMLO, pose significant trust and intelligence risks.

• The Trump administration’s appointment of Ron Johnson—a Green Beret and former CIA officer—as ambassador to Mexico signals a strategy to bypass compromised channels and build trust with vetted security forces.

• The U.S. is likely to focus partnership efforts on SEMAR (Mexico’s Navy) rather than SEDENA (Army), given SEMAR’s longstanding record of successful counter-narcotics cooperation and their recent joint training with U.S. Army’s 7th Special Forces Group in Campeche.

Axios Security Group can enhance this phase by providing International Security Training (IST) to both military and law enforcement line units, augmenting Special Forces with intelligence-driven tactics aligned with Joint Combined Exchange Training (JCET) doctrine.

Step 2: Identifying First Targets

The most likely initial target? The Sinaloa Cartel.

• Sinaloa controls large portions of drug trafficking into the U.S., particularly fentanyl.

• It has deep economic ties with Chinese chemical suppliers and money launderers, which gives it geopolitical weight and criminal power.

• With co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada now in custody, the cartel’s operations are vulnerable, making it an opportune moment for direct disruption.

Targeting Sinaloa sends a clear message: No cooperation with hostile states like China.

Step 3: Covert Action and “Shock and Awe”

The U.S. has two legal paths:

• A Title 10 deployment via Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), which would require congressional approval for overt operations.

• More likely, it could be a Title 50 covert action authorized by a presidential finding, carried out by the CIA and Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC).

Given precedent (e.g., the Soleimani strike), a shock-and-awe campaign is likely:

• Rapid airstrikes and drone strikes on fentanyl labs, safehouses, and weapons depots.

• Kill/capture raids on sicarios, mid-level commanders, and logistics hubs.

• Embedded U.S. forces with vetted Mexican units, especially SEMAR, to maintain operational secrecy and control.

Axios Security Group’s IST teams can play a pivotal role in bridging the capability gaps, enhancing force protection, and assisting in direct action planning and intelligence fusion.

Step 4: Concession and Enforcement

After initial kinetic operations, the administration may push the Mexican government to negotiate cartel ceasefires, focusing on:

• Ending synthetic drug production and trafficking (fentanyl, meth).

• Halting human smuggling into the U.S.

• Cutting ties with foreign intelligence services and financial networks, particularly in China.

Recent intelligence on a cartel ceasefire in Tamaulipas (Grupo Escorpion and Metros) may signal how pressure can drive compliance.

Long-Term Strategy

• Force will be used to compel behavior change, not endless occupation.

• Ongoing extradition operations and law enforcement coordination will complement military strikes.

• Continuous surveillance, threat monitoring, and enforcement mechanisms will be key to preventing cartel resurgence.

Cartel Response & Wider Threats

Cartels are not built for sustained warfare:

• They operate as criminal businesses, not ideological terror groups.

• Loss of assets, leaders, and production capacity will force adaptation over confrontation.

• However, asymmetric retaliation—such as assassinations of U.S.-linked officials or cyber disruptions—could increase.

There is a low likelihood of cross-border attacks, but state-sponsored actors could exploit the situation (e.g., Iran or China targeting U.S. personnel abroad in retaliation).

Conclusion: A New Chapter in Homeland Defense

Designating cartels as FTOs and preparing for joint military action signals a redefinition of U.S. national defense priorities—from overseas regime change to securing our southern border and protecting domestic sovereignty.

As Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently stated:

“Chaos happens when the perception of American strength is not complete… it starts with our own southern border.”

The next phase of this strategy may not be measured in wars won abroad but in fentanyl overdoses prevented, cartel networks dismantled, and American lives saved at home.

🛡️ Axios Security Group: Ready to Support

If military operations against cartels unfold, Axios Security Group stands ready to support with:

• International Security Training (IST)

• Force Protection and Intelligence Support

• Joint Law Enforcement Augmentation

• Counterterrorism and Threat Monitoring

📞 Contact us at (800) 485-3983 to learn how our experts can support operations in high-risk environments across the Americas.